Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Market outlook June 30, 2018


I had written a week ago explaining our expectations for the following markets:
Donald Trump seems to have become the sole driver of the markets. He has once again demonstrated his ability to do so by bringing about a real change in trade agreements with China and reducing trade deficit with it
Trump's results will boost Asian markets a lot and help Japan keep the yen weak but the key question remains: Does America want a strong dollar?
Economically, America does not want a strong dollar but it wants a stable dollar, but the 10-year high yield on the 10-year bonds is not the best.
Are there new highs for the dollar?
Specifically, I do not think that is possible. It seems that the markets have priced the dollar according to the high yield on bonds, in addition to the state of the US economy and the possibility of raising the interest rate several times in a row
Therefore, we do not wait for violent movements of the dollar in the coming period. The only possible violent movement will be in the interest of the dollar if the equation of the US interest rate hike is changed in advance or something new happens at the American political level.
An alarming scenario that we may see with record debt rises in line with the rise in risk appetite, a situation we have experienced before and ended with a major US economic crisis that has cast a shadow over all the economies of the world. This scenario may be what buyers are betting on gold during that period and waiting for it to reach its previous record levels during The recent crisis, when it simply exceeded 1500 levels and is now betting on a higher possibility, is the gold that keeps the 1200 levels away from trading until now despite all the dollar-biased data and index trading


Now we have signs that the strong dollar bubble is about to explode and the markets are on the verge of uncertainty, gold despite all the pressures has not fallen much, the euro despite the Italian and Spanish crisis higher than the levels reached during the Greek crisis, the pound is higher than the levels of the referendum period

We are waiting for a strong and surprising rise for most of the pairs during the coming period so I recommend not to engage in selling on the currencies from the current levels and can start buying in small sizes, leaving the levels of profit-taking unspecified

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